2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll Highlights How Economy, Abortion, Immigration, Climate Change, Other Key Issues Influenced Latino Voter Choice

on

Continuing Historical Trend, Nationally Two Thirds of Hispanics Supported Democrats and One Third Republicans

WASHINGTON, D.C.—An extensive national and state poll that included an oversample of 5,400 Hispanic voters has shed light on the motivations driving Latino voters’ choices during the 2022 midterm elections and the trends affecting those choices. With the economy and inflation leading the list of issues, other topics such as women’s reproductive and abortion rights, immigration, climate change, and political extremism also influenced the choices these voters made at the ballot box.

  • Click HERE to watch a replay of today’s webinar
  • Click HERE for the Zoom recording
  • Click HERE to view Latino vote results by states
  • Click HERE to see Latino vote results by demographic crosstabs

The 2022 Midterm Election Poll, sponsored by America’s Voice, Climate Power, First Nations Development Institute, The Immigration Hub, Indivisible, Latino Community Foundation, Mi Familia Vota Education Fund, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, RuralOrganizing.org, SEIU, UnidosUS, and Voter Participation Center, is a critical cross-check to traditional exit polls, and illustrates the in-depth and granular research needed to make inferences about political trends and tendencies within the diverse Latino electorate.

The poll includes data from Florida, Georgia, Texas, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, California, Colorado, and Nevada, with large sample sizes that allowed disaggregation by national origin, age, and religion.

The poll’s findings largely point to a continuation of voting patterns among Hispanic voters, which disproves the narrative that Latinos have significantly shifted right over the last six years. This has been borne out by results in states such as Pennsylvania, where Democrat John Fetterman won the Senate race, and the Congressional race in Texas’s District 34, where Democrat Vicente González easily defeated Republican incumbent Mayra Flores.

“The data from actual voters make clear that approximately two thirds of Latino voters supported Democrats in every state, with the exception of Florida. Nationally, Latinos voted Democrat by a 2-to-1 margin and provided the margin of victory in many critical state elections across the country from Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico to John Fetterman in Pennsylvania. In Florida we saw a majority of Latinos voting Republican—similar to cycles years back—and a reminder of the diversity of the Latino electorate and the importance of outreach,” said Gabriel R. Sanchez, Vice President of Research, BSP Research.

“This was not a course correction or wave election like in 2010 or 2018. Data shows Latino voters are generally supportive of Biden administration policies, and at the same time they are understandably frustrated and worried about inflation. For Latino voters, they are also frustrated with the Supreme Court, with oil company CEOs record profits, and billionaire corporations not paying their fair share. As a result, this poll confirms that Democrats exceeded expectations in the 2022 midterm with Latino voters,” said Matt A. Barreto, President of BSP Research.

Overall, Hispanic voters were very supportive of issues such as abortion access, immigration, climate change and elements of the Democratic legislative agenda, such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill.

On immigration, 82 percent of Latinos support a path to citizenship for Dreamers, those undocumented individuals who were brought to the United States at a very early age. Large majorities of Hispanic voters also support a path to citizenship for the 11 million undocumented immigrants, provided they meet certain criteria such as paying taxes.

Clarissa Martinez De Castro, Vice President of the UnidosUS Latino Vote Initiative:

“Hispanic voters affirmed their critical role in shaping the country’s political landscape, and are sending a wake-up call to both parties. While polling shows a majority of Latinos see their values more aligned with Democratic positions, inflation and traditional midterm headwinds—and uneven or late outreach by Democrats—allowed Republicans to gain some ground. That said, Hispanic voters nationally largely reflected their historical pattern of two thirds supporting Democrats, and one third Republicans. Democrats have ample room to solidify and expand Hispanic support, but need to engage these voters more deeply, earlier, and strengthen their economic message. For Republicans, in addition to ongoing outreach, to sustain or increase support with this electorate they need to remember that their platform is radically out of step with these voters’ priorities in most areas—including abortion, gun violence, health care, and immigration, as the poll shows. UnidosUS is committed to continue its work to grow the political voice of this community of voters, who data shows generally reject extremes and taking rights away from people, and can be a stabilizing force in our politics.”

Sergio Gonzales, Executive Director of The Immigration Hub:

“There were a lot of very bad takes on America’s Latinos voters this election cycle, with pundits not from our communities speaking for our communities. They pushed media narratives that Latinos would turn out for extreme Republicans and are anti-immigrant. Latinos spoke for themselves: saying no to MAGA extremism; and casting decisive votes for candidates who ran on policies like a path to citizenship for Dreamers, farmworkers, and undocumented essential workers. Given that the federal courts are preparing to strike down DACA, stripping protections away from hard working young people across the country, it’s now time for Congress to deliver for Latinos. Democrats need to show up for Latino families by protecting Dreamers and farm workers, and Republicans would be wise to walk away from the hate politics of Stephen Miller and Donald Trump that continue to repel Latinos in a big way.”

Antonieta Cadiz, Managing Director for Latino Engagement at Climate Power:

“Latinos understand how climate change is increasingly impacting their lives and the urgency needed to address this crisis. At the same time, they see hope in climate action led by Democrats. They see the progress on the Inflation Reduction Law climate investments. This trend will only grow in the near future once the law continues its implementation.”

Vanessa Cardenas, Executive Director of America’s Voice:

“Once again, Republicans are finding it hard to make inroads with Latino voters while simultaneously being the party opposed to immigration and demonizing immigrants. Latino voters saw what we at America’s Voice saw, the shocking investment of Republican candidates in hateful and anti-immigration messages, often echoing the “invasion” and “white replacement” rhetoric of the nationalist right-wing. By all indications, the economy and inflation were the key issues for voters this year, but Republican extremism and fear mongering on border security and immigration hurt Republican candidates with Latinos and a lot of others outside of the MAGA base. Voters in this poll are clear that immediate action to protect Dreamers who may lose their DACA status is needed by the end of this year.”

Hector Sanchez Barba, Executive Director and CEO of Mi Familia Vota:

“On issue after issue, Latino voters continue to be repulsed by the extremism of the MAGA movement. Latinos do not like MAGA politicians’ policy views on climate change, reproductive rights, or immigration. Now that we have made it thru these midterms, it is time to turn to another critical policy priority. Latino voters are the present and the future of our democracy. This cycle, we showed up and made our voices heard at the ballot box. Now that we have done our part, we must move to hold politicians accountable for the policy priorities of our community. Many Latinos support this and a pathway to citizenship for the 11 million undocumented citizens here. No more excuses; it’s time to get this done.”

Jacqueline Martinez Garcel, CEO of Latino Community Foundation:

“With over 34 million eligible voters, Latinos will continue to be a critical factor in national elections. Nowhere is this power most felt than in the state of California where several competitive congressional districts were at play. After every single vote is counted, our newly elected officials must continue to engage our communities on the issues that matter most to them.”

Rocío Sáenz, Executive Vice President of SEIU:

“It’s no surprise that Latino voters care about what working people of all races care about: the ability to create a secure future for their families. They want elected leaders to hold corporations accountable for rising prices and to stand with workers demanding living wages, safe working conditions, and unions. And overwhelmingly, they want elected leaders to bring solutions to provide a path to citizenship for all immigrant workers and their families, including calling on Congress to protect Dreamers. This is an issue that touches nearly every Latino family in our everyday lives and is a crucial component of building an inclusive and thriving economy. ”

Visit https://2022electionpoll.us/ for complete data and to track state-specific results.

Select national findings from the 2022 Midterm Election Poll:

LATINO/HISPANIC VOTE

  • Nearly two-thirds of Hispanic voters supported Democratic candidates; Republicans regained some ground lost in the last decade and have about one-third support overall. This is in keeping with historical trends in Hispanic voter support.
  • The data do not support the narrative of a seismic shift in party support among Latino voters, and election results reaffirm that consistent and effective outreach pays off..
  • A significant majority of Hispanic voters support policies such as lowering prescription drug prices, abortion rights, immigration reform, and canceling college debt.
  • Democrats had a strong majority support among Hispanic voters in several key states, including Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.
  • In Florida, a majority of Hispanic voters supported Republicans, echoing patterns from older election cycles.

IMMIGRATION & DACA

  • 82% of Latino voters want Congress to take up protections for Dreamers in the lame duck.
  • 71% of Latino voters believe that our immigration policy should focus on a healthy, growing economy for us all and that we need a humane, orderly, and functional immigration system that removes unnecessary barriers for working people who want to contribute and establishes a path to citizenship for hardworking immigrants, and ensures a safe and orderly border.

ECONOMY & INFLATION

  • 48% of Latino voters believe that the cost of living and inflation is the most important issue they want Congress and the President to address.
  • Latino voters want policymakers to speak clearly to voters about pocketbook issues like high rents and affordable healthcare.

ABORTION RIGHTS

  • 24% of Latino voters ranked women’s reproductive and abortion rights as a priority, making it as the second most important issue for voters.

CLIMATE CHANGE

  • Climate change, cutting pollution, and investing in clean energy have been steadily moving up in Latinos’ list of priorities, now ranking among the top 10 issues for this segment of the population.
  • An overwhelming 83% of Latino voters surveyed said they support the climate provisions included in the Inflation Reduction Act.
  • 68% of Latino voters think climate change is an urgent issue that we must address now by investing in clean energy, reducing pollution, and lowering energy costs.
  • 42% also said that the passage and signing of the Inflation Reduction Act was the main reason behind their vote, and among them, 71% were Latinos between 18 and 29 years old.

WHITE EXTREMISM

  • 70% of Latino voters are very worried about elected officials who stay quiet and do not speak out against white nationalists and extremists who promote hate and attacks against minorities and immigrants.